特定カード 1ドロー確率表
60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが1枚以上引けるのか?
・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば4枚入れた「解呪」は最初の7枚の手札に39.95%の確率で1枚
以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
・この表を見ると70%の確率で1枚以上ドローするには、4枚入れて9ターン目、3枚だと13ターン目、2
枚だと20ターン目以降ということになる。(ただし後攻の場合には、−1する。)
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数
            |
  15枚   |
  14枚   |
  13枚   |
  12枚   |
  11枚   |
  10枚   |
   9枚   |
   8枚   |
   7枚   |
   6枚   |
   5枚   |
   4枚   |
   3枚   |
   2枚   |
   1枚   |
1 |
25.00% |
23.33% |
21.67% |
20.00% |
18.33% |
16.67% |
15.00% |
13.33% |
11.67% |
10.00% |
8.33% |
6.67% |
5.00% |
3.33% |
1.67% |
2 |
44.07% |
41.53% |
38.93% |
36.27% |
33.56% |
30.79% |
27.97% |
25.08% |
22.15% |
19.15% |
16.10% |
12.99% |
9.83% |
6.61% |
3.33% |
3 |
58.53% |
55.64% |
52.62% |
49.46% |
46.16% |
42.72% |
39.14% |
35.42% |
31.54% |
27.52% |
23.33% |
18.99% |
14.49% |
9.83% |
5.00% |
4 |
69.45% |
66.54% |
63.42% |
60.10% |
56.55% |
52.77% |
48.75% |
44.48% |
39.95% |
35.15% |
30.06% |
24.68% |
18.99% |
12.99% |
6.67% |
5 |
77.63% |
74.90% |
71.91% |
68.65% |
65.09% |
61.21% |
56.99% |
52.41% |
47.46% |
42.09% |
36.30% |
30.06% |
23.33% |
16.10% |
8.33% |
6 |
83.73% |
81.29% |
78.55% |
75.49% |
72.07% |
68.26% |
64.03% |
59.33% |
54.14% |
48.41% |
42.09% |
35.15% |
27.52% |
19.15% |
10.00% |
7 |
88.25% |
86.14% |
83.72% |
80.94% |
77.76% |
74.14% |
70.02% |
65.36% |
60.09% |
54.14% |
47.46% |
39.95% |
31.54% |
22.15% |
11.67% |
8 |
91.58% |
89.80% |
87.71% |
85.25% |
82.37% |
79.02% |
75.11% |
70.59% |
65.36% |
59.33% |
52.41% |
44.48% |
35.42% |
25.08% |
13.33% |
9 |
94.01% |
92.55% |
90.78% |
88.66% |
86.10% |
83.05% |
79.42% |
75.11% |
70.02% |
64.03% |
56.99% |
48.75% |
39.14% |
27.97% |
15.00% |
10 |
95.77% |
94.59% |
93.13% |
91.32% |
89.10% |
86.38% |
83.05% |
79.02% |
74.14% |
68.26% |
61.21% |
52.77% |
42.72% |
30.79% |
16.67% |
11 |
97.04% |
96.11% |
94.92% |
93.41% |
91.50% |
89.10% |
86.10% |
82.37% |
77.76% |
72.07% |
65.09% |
56.55% |
46.16% |
33.56% |
18.33% |
12 |
97.94% |
97.22% |
96.27% |
95.02% |
93.41% |
91.32% |
88.66% |
85.25% |
80.94% |
75.49% |
68.65% |
60.10% |
49.46% |
36.27% |
20.00% |
13 |
98.59% |
98.03% |
97.28% |
96.27% |
94.92% |
93.13% |
90.78% |
87.71% |
83.72% |
78.55% |
71.91% |
63.42% |
52.62% |
38.93% |
21.67% |
14 |
99.04% |
98.62% |
98.03% |
97.22% |
96.11% |
94.59% |
92.55% |
89.80% |
86.14% |
81.29% |
74.90% |
66.54% |
55.64% |
41.53% |
23.33% |
15 |
99.35% |
99.04% |
98.59% |
97.94% |
97.04% |
95.77% |
94.01% |
91.58% |
88.25% |
83.73% |
77.63% |
69.45% |
58.53% |
44.07% |
25.00% |
16 |
99.57% |
99.34% |
99.00% |
98.49% |
97.76% |
96.71% |
95.20% |
93.07% |
90.08% |
85.90% |
80.12% |
72.16% |
61.30% |
46.55% |
26.67% |
17 |
99.72% |
99.55% |
99.29% |
98.90% |
98.32% |
97.46% |
96.19% |
94.33% |
91.66% |
87.82% |
82.37% |
74.69% |
63.94% |
48.98% |
28.33% |
18 |
99.81% |
99.70% |
99.51% |
99.21% |
98.75% |
98.05% |
96.98% |
95.39% |
93.01% |
89.52% |
84.42% |
77.05% |
66.45% |
51.36% |
30.00% |
19 |
99.88% |
99.80% |
99.66% |
99.44% |
99.08% |
98.51% |
97.63% |
96.27% |
94.18% |
91.02% |
86.28% |
79.23% |
68.85% |
53.67% |
31.67% |
20 |
99.92% |
99.87% |
99.77% |
99.60% |
99.33% |
98.88% |
98.15% |
96.99% |
95.17% |
92.33% |
87.95% |
81.26% |
71.13% |
55.93% |
33.33% |
21 |
99.95% |
99.91% |
99.84% |
99.72% |
99.51% |
99.16% |
98.57% |
97.60% |
96.02% |
93.48% |
89.46% |
83.13% |
73.29% |
58.14% |
35.00% |
22 |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.90% |
99.81% |
99.65% |
99.37% |
98.90% |
98.09% |
96.73% |
94.49% |
90.81% |
84.86% |
75.35% |
60.28% |
36.67% |
23 |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.93% |
99.87% |
99.75% |
99.54% |
99.16% |
98.49% |
97.33% |
95.36% |
92.02% |
86.46% |
77.29% |
62.37% |
38.33% |
24 |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.91% |
99.82% |
99.66% |
99.36% |
98.82% |
97.84% |
96.11% |
93.10% |
87.92% |
79.14% |
64.41% |
40.00% |
25 |
99.99% |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.88% |
99.76% |
99.52% |
99.08% |
98.26% |
96.76% |
94.06% |
89.26% |
80.87% |
66.38% |
41.67% |
26 |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.92% |
99.83% |
99.65% |
99.29% |
98.61% |
97.31% |
94.91% |
90.49% |
82.51% |
68.31% |
43.33% |
27 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.88% |
99.74% |
99.46% |
98.89% |
97.79% |
95.65% |
91.61% |
84.06% |
70.17% |
45.00% |