特定カード 1ドロー確率表

60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが1枚以上引けるのか?

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・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば4枚入れた「解呪」は最初の7枚の手札に39.95%の確率で1枚
 以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
・この表を見ると70%の確率で1枚以上ドローするには、4枚入れて9ターン目、3枚だと13ターン目、2
 枚だと20ターン目以降ということになる。(ただし後攻の場合には、−1する。)

縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数

              15枚     14枚     13枚     12枚     11枚     10枚      9枚      8枚      7枚      6枚      5枚      4枚      3枚      2枚      1枚  
25.00% 23.33% 21.67% 20.00% 18.33% 16.67% 15.00% 13.33% 11.67% 10.00% 8.33% 6.67% 5.00% 3.33% 1.67%
44.07% 41.53% 38.93% 36.27% 33.56% 30.79% 27.97% 25.08% 22.15% 19.15% 16.10% 12.99% 9.83% 6.61% 3.33%
58.53% 55.64% 52.62% 49.46% 46.16% 42.72% 39.14% 35.42% 31.54% 27.52% 23.33% 18.99% 14.49% 9.83% 5.00%
69.45% 66.54% 63.42% 60.10% 56.55% 52.77% 48.75% 44.48% 39.95% 35.15% 30.06% 24.68% 18.99% 12.99% 6.67%
77.63% 74.90% 71.91% 68.65% 65.09% 61.21% 56.99% 52.41% 47.46% 42.09% 36.30% 30.06% 23.33% 16.10% 8.33%
83.73% 81.29% 78.55% 75.49% 72.07% 68.26% 64.03% 59.33% 54.14% 48.41% 42.09% 35.15% 27.52% 19.15% 10.00%
88.25% 86.14% 83.72% 80.94% 77.76% 74.14% 70.02% 65.36% 60.09% 54.14% 47.46% 39.95% 31.54% 22.15% 11.67%
91.58% 89.80% 87.71% 85.25% 82.37% 79.02% 75.11% 70.59% 65.36% 59.33% 52.41% 44.48% 35.42% 25.08% 13.33%
94.01% 92.55% 90.78% 88.66% 86.10% 83.05% 79.42% 75.11% 70.02% 64.03% 56.99% 48.75% 39.14% 27.97% 15.00%
10 95.77% 94.59% 93.13% 91.32% 89.10% 86.38% 83.05% 79.02% 74.14% 68.26% 61.21% 52.77% 42.72% 30.79% 16.67%
11 97.04% 96.11% 94.92% 93.41% 91.50% 89.10% 86.10% 82.37% 77.76% 72.07% 65.09% 56.55% 46.16% 33.56% 18.33%
12 97.94% 97.22% 96.27% 95.02% 93.41% 91.32% 88.66% 85.25% 80.94% 75.49% 68.65% 60.10% 49.46% 36.27% 20.00%
13 98.59% 98.03% 97.28% 96.27% 94.92% 93.13% 90.78% 87.71% 83.72% 78.55% 71.91% 63.42% 52.62% 38.93% 21.67%
14 99.04% 98.62% 98.03% 97.22% 96.11% 94.59% 92.55% 89.80% 86.14% 81.29% 74.90% 66.54% 55.64% 41.53% 23.33%
15 99.35% 99.04% 98.59% 97.94% 97.04% 95.77% 94.01% 91.58% 88.25% 83.73% 77.63% 69.45% 58.53% 44.07% 25.00%
16 99.57% 99.34% 99.00% 98.49% 97.76% 96.71% 95.20% 93.07% 90.08% 85.90% 80.12% 72.16% 61.30% 46.55% 26.67%
17 99.72% 99.55% 99.29% 98.90% 98.32% 97.46% 96.19% 94.33% 91.66% 87.82% 82.37% 74.69% 63.94% 48.98% 28.33%
18 99.81% 99.70% 99.51% 99.21% 98.75% 98.05% 96.98% 95.39% 93.01% 89.52% 84.42% 77.05% 66.45% 51.36% 30.00%
19 99.88% 99.80% 99.66% 99.44% 99.08% 98.51% 97.63% 96.27% 94.18% 91.02% 86.28% 79.23% 68.85% 53.67% 31.67%
20 99.92% 99.87% 99.77% 99.60% 99.33% 98.88% 98.15% 96.99% 95.17% 92.33% 87.95% 81.26% 71.13% 55.93% 33.33%
21 99.95% 99.91% 99.84% 99.72% 99.51% 99.16% 98.57% 97.60% 96.02% 93.48% 89.46% 83.13% 73.29% 58.14% 35.00%
22 99.97% 99.94% 99.90% 99.81% 99.65% 99.37% 98.90% 98.09% 96.73% 94.49% 90.81% 84.86% 75.35% 60.28% 36.67%
23 99.98% 99.96% 99.93% 99.87% 99.75% 99.54% 99.16% 98.49% 97.33% 95.36% 92.02% 86.46% 77.29% 62.37% 38.33%
24 99.99% 99.98% 99.96% 99.91% 99.82% 99.66% 99.36% 98.82% 97.84% 96.11% 93.10% 87.92% 79.14% 64.41% 40.00%
25 99.99% 99.99% 99.97% 99.94% 99.88% 99.76% 99.52% 99.08% 98.26% 96.76% 94.06% 89.26% 80.87% 66.38% 41.67%
26 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.96% 99.92% 99.83% 99.65% 99.29% 98.61% 97.31% 94.91% 90.49% 82.51% 68.31% 43.33%
27 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.97% 99.94% 99.88% 99.74% 99.46% 98.89% 97.79% 95.65% 91.61% 84.06% 70.17% 45.00%

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