特定カード 2ドロー確率表(1)

60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが2枚以上引けるのか?

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・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば4枚入れた「解呪」は最初の7枚の手札に8.23%の確率で2枚
 以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
・この表を見ると30%の確率で2枚以上ドローするには、4枚入れて10ターン目、3枚だと15ターン目
 以降ということになる。(ただし後攻の場合には、−1する。)
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数

              15枚     14枚     13枚     12枚     11枚     10枚      9枚      8枚      7枚      6枚      5枚      4枚      3枚      2枚  
5.93% 5.14% 4.41% 3.73% 3.11% 2.54% 2.03% 1.58% 1.19% 0.85% 0.56% 0.34% 0.17% 0.06%
15.14% 13.30% 11.55% 9.90% 8.36% 6.93% 5.61% 4.42% 3.35% 2.43% 1.64% 0.99% 0.50% 0.17%
25.80% 22.95% 20.19% 17.53% 14.99% 12.58% 10.32% 8.23% 6.32% 4.63% 3.16% 1.94% 0.99% 0.34%
36.71% 33.07% 29.46% 25.89% 22.41% 19.04% 15.81% 12.76% 9.92% 7.35% 5.08% 3.16% 1.64% 0.56%
47.12% 42.96% 38.72% 34.45% 30.17% 25.94% 21.80% 17.80% 14.02% 10.51% 7.35% 4.63% 2.43% 0.85%
56.62% 52.19% 47.57% 42.81% 37.93% 32.99% 28.05% 23.19% 18.48% 14.02% 9.92% 6.32% 3.35% 1.19%
64.97% 60.51% 55.76% 50.72% 45.44% 39.98% 34.39% 28.76% 23.19% 17.80% 12.76% 8.23% 4.42% 1.58%
72.13% 67.84% 63.13% 58.02% 52.55% 46.74% 40.65% 34.39% 28.05% 21.80% 15.81% 10.32% 5.61% 2.03%
10 78.14% 74.14% 69.64% 64.63% 59.13% 53.14% 46.74% 39.98% 32.99% 25.94% 19.04% 12.58% 6.93% 2.54%
11 83.07% 79.45% 75.28% 70.50% 65.12% 59.13% 52.55% 45.44% 37.93% 30.17% 22.41% 14.99% 8.36% 3.11%
12 87.06% 83.87% 80.09% 75.65% 70.50% 64.63% 58.02% 50.72% 42.81% 34.45% 25.89% 17.53% 9.90% 3.73%
13 90.24% 87.49% 84.13% 80.09% 75.28% 69.64% 63.13% 55.76% 47.57% 38.72% 29.46% 20.19% 11.55% 4.41%
14 92.72% 90.40% 87.49% 83.87% 79.45% 74.14% 67.84% 60.51% 52.19% 42.96% 33.07% 22.95% 13.30% 5.14%
15 94.65% 92.72% 90.24% 87.06% 83.07% 78.14% 72.13% 64.97% 56.62% 47.12% 36.71% 25.80% 15.14% 5.93%
16 96.11% 94.55% 92.46% 89.72% 86.18% 81.66% 76.02% 69.11% 60.83% 51.19% 40.35% 28.71% 17.07% 6.78%
17 97.21% 95.96% 94.25% 91.92% 88.81% 84.74% 79.51% 72.92% 64.82% 55.14% 43.96% 31.67% 19.08% 7.68%
18 98.03% 97.05% 95.65% 93.70% 91.02% 87.40% 82.61% 76.41% 68.57% 58.94% 47.53% 34.67% 21.16% 8.64%
19 98.62% 97.87% 96.75% 95.15% 92.86% 89.68% 85.35% 79.57% 72.06% 62.58% 51.05% 37.70% 23.32% 9.66%
20 99.05% 98.48% 97.60% 96.30% 94.38% 91.62% 87.75% 82.42% 75.30% 66.05% 54.48% 40.74% 25.54% 10.73%
21 99.36% 98.93% 98.25% 97.21% 95.62% 93.25% 89.83% 84.97% 78.28% 69.33% 57.83% 43.78% 27.82% 11.86%
22 99.57% 99.26% 98.74% 97.91% 96.61% 94.62% 91.62% 87.24% 81.01% 72.43% 61.08% 46.80% 30.15% 13.05%
23 99.72% 99.49% 99.11% 98.46% 97.41% 95.74% 93.15% 89.24% 83.49% 75.33% 64.21% 49.81% 32.53% 14.29%
24 99.82% 99.66% 99.37% 98.88% 98.04% 96.67% 94.45% 90.99% 85.73% 78.04% 67.21% 52.78% 34.95% 15.59%
25 99.88% 99.77% 99.57% 99.19% 98.54% 97.42% 95.54% 92.51% 87.75% 80.55% 70.09% 55.71% 37.41% 16.95%
26 99.93% 99.85% 99.71% 99.43% 98.92% 98.02% 96.45% 93.82% 89.55% 82.86% 72.83% 58.58% 39.89% 18.36%
27 99.96% 99.91% 99.80% 99.60% 99.21% 98.50% 97.20% 94.95% 91.15% 84.99% 75.42% 61.40% 42.40% 19.83%
28 99.97% 99.94% 99.87% 99.73% 99.44% 98.87% 97.82% 95.91% 92.56% 86.93% 77.88% 64.15% 44.92% 21.36%

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