特定カード 2ドロー確率表(1)
60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが2枚以上引けるのか?
・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば4枚入れた「解呪」は最初の7枚の手札に8.23%の確率で2枚
以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
・この表を見ると30%の確率で2枚以上ドローするには、4枚入れて10ターン目、3枚だと15ターン目
以降ということになる。(ただし後攻の場合には、−1する。)
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数
            |
  15枚   |
  14枚   |
  13枚   |
  12枚   |
  11枚   |
  10枚   |
   9枚   |
   8枚   |
   7枚   |
   6枚   |
   5枚   |
   4枚   |
   3枚   |
   2枚   |
2 |
5.93% |
5.14% |
4.41% |
3.73% |
3.11% |
2.54% |
2.03% |
1.58% |
1.19% |
0.85% |
0.56% |
0.34% |
0.17% |
0.06% |
3 |
15.14% |
13.30% |
11.55% |
9.90% |
8.36% |
6.93% |
5.61% |
4.42% |
3.35% |
2.43% |
1.64% |
0.99% |
0.50% |
0.17% |
4 |
25.80% |
22.95% |
20.19% |
17.53% |
14.99% |
12.58% |
10.32% |
8.23% |
6.32% |
4.63% |
3.16% |
1.94% |
0.99% |
0.34% |
5 |
36.71% |
33.07% |
29.46% |
25.89% |
22.41% |
19.04% |
15.81% |
12.76% |
9.92% |
7.35% |
5.08% |
3.16% |
1.64% |
0.56% |
6 |
47.12% |
42.96% |
38.72% |
34.45% |
30.17% |
25.94% |
21.80% |
17.80% |
14.02% |
10.51% |
7.35% |
4.63% |
2.43% |
0.85% |
7 |
56.62% |
52.19% |
47.57% |
42.81% |
37.93% |
32.99% |
28.05% |
23.19% |
18.48% |
14.02% |
9.92% |
6.32% |
3.35% |
1.19% |
8 |
64.97% |
60.51% |
55.76% |
50.72% |
45.44% |
39.98% |
34.39% |
28.76% |
23.19% |
17.80% |
12.76% |
8.23% |
4.42% |
1.58% |
9 |
72.13% |
67.84% |
63.13% |
58.02% |
52.55% |
46.74% |
40.65% |
34.39% |
28.05% |
21.80% |
15.81% |
10.32% |
5.61% |
2.03% |
10 |
78.14% |
74.14% |
69.64% |
64.63% |
59.13% |
53.14% |
46.74% |
39.98% |
32.99% |
25.94% |
19.04% |
12.58% |
6.93% |
2.54% |
11 |
83.07% |
79.45% |
75.28% |
70.50% |
65.12% |
59.13% |
52.55% |
45.44% |
37.93% |
30.17% |
22.41% |
14.99% |
8.36% |
3.11% |
12 |
87.06% |
83.87% |
80.09% |
75.65% |
70.50% |
64.63% |
58.02% |
50.72% |
42.81% |
34.45% |
25.89% |
17.53% |
9.90% |
3.73% |
13 |
90.24% |
87.49% |
84.13% |
80.09% |
75.28% |
69.64% |
63.13% |
55.76% |
47.57% |
38.72% |
29.46% |
20.19% |
11.55% |
4.41% |
14 |
92.72% |
90.40% |
87.49% |
83.87% |
79.45% |
74.14% |
67.84% |
60.51% |
52.19% |
42.96% |
33.07% |
22.95% |
13.30% |
5.14% |
15 |
94.65% |
92.72% |
90.24% |
87.06% |
83.07% |
78.14% |
72.13% |
64.97% |
56.62% |
47.12% |
36.71% |
25.80% |
15.14% |
5.93% |
16 |
96.11% |
94.55% |
92.46% |
89.72% |
86.18% |
81.66% |
76.02% |
69.11% |
60.83% |
51.19% |
40.35% |
28.71% |
17.07% |
6.78% |
17 |
97.21% |
95.96% |
94.25% |
91.92% |
88.81% |
84.74% |
79.51% |
72.92% |
64.82% |
55.14% |
43.96% |
31.67% |
19.08% |
7.68% |
18 |
98.03% |
97.05% |
95.65% |
93.70% |
91.02% |
87.40% |
82.61% |
76.41% |
68.57% |
58.94% |
47.53% |
34.67% |
21.16% |
8.64% |
19 |
98.62% |
97.87% |
96.75% |
95.15% |
92.86% |
89.68% |
85.35% |
79.57% |
72.06% |
62.58% |
51.05% |
37.70% |
23.32% |
9.66% |
20 |
99.05% |
98.48% |
97.60% |
96.30% |
94.38% |
91.62% |
87.75% |
82.42% |
75.30% |
66.05% |
54.48% |
40.74% |
25.54% |
10.73% |
21 |
99.36% |
98.93% |
98.25% |
97.21% |
95.62% |
93.25% |
89.83% |
84.97% |
78.28% |
69.33% |
57.83% |
43.78% |
27.82% |
11.86% |
22 |
99.57% |
99.26% |
98.74% |
97.91% |
96.61% |
94.62% |
91.62% |
87.24% |
81.01% |
72.43% |
61.08% |
46.80% |
30.15% |
13.05% |
23 |
99.72% |
99.49% |
99.11% |
98.46% |
97.41% |
95.74% |
93.15% |
89.24% |
83.49% |
75.33% |
64.21% |
49.81% |
32.53% |
14.29% |
24 |
99.82% |
99.66% |
99.37% |
98.88% |
98.04% |
96.67% |
94.45% |
90.99% |
85.73% |
78.04% |
67.21% |
52.78% |
34.95% |
15.59% |
25 |
99.88% |
99.77% |
99.57% |
99.19% |
98.54% |
97.42% |
95.54% |
92.51% |
87.75% |
80.55% |
70.09% |
55.71% |
37.41% |
16.95% |
26 |
99.93% |
99.85% |
99.71% |
99.43% |
98.92% |
98.02% |
96.45% |
93.82% |
89.55% |
82.86% |
72.83% |
58.58% |
39.89% |
18.36% |
27 |
99.96% |
99.91% |
99.80% |
99.60% |
99.21% |
98.50% |
97.20% |
94.95% |
91.15% |
84.99% |
75.42% |
61.40% |
42.40% |
19.83% |
28 |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.87% |
99.73% |
99.44% |
98.87% |
97.82% |
95.91% |
92.56% |
86.93% |
77.88% |
64.15% |
44.92% |
21.36% |