特定カード 3ドロー確率表(2)
60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが3枚以上引けるのか?
・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば20枚入れた「森」は最初の7枚の手札に42.92%の確率で3枚
以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数
            |
  30枚   |
  29枚   |
  28枚   |
  27枚   |
  26枚   |
  25枚   |
  24枚   |
  23枚   |
  22枚   |
  21枚   |
  20枚   |
  19枚   |
  18枚   |
  17枚   |
  16枚   |
3 |
11.86% |
10.68% |
9.57% |
8.55% |
7.60% |
6.72% |
5.91% |
5.18% |
4.50% |
3.89% |
3.33% |
2.83% |
2.38% |
1.99% |
1.64% |
4 |
30.60% |
28.10% |
25.70% |
23.39% |
21.19% |
19.10% |
17.12% |
15.25% |
13.50% |
11.86% |
10.34% |
8.94% |
7.66% |
6.48% |
5.43% |
5 |
50.00% |
46.77% |
43.55% |
40.36% |
37.22% |
34.14% |
31.13% |
28.21% |
25.39% |
22.69% |
20.11% |
17.67% |
15.37% |
13.23% |
11.25% |
6 |
66.46% |
63.17% |
59.78% |
56.30% |
52.76% |
49.17% |
45.56% |
41.95% |
38.37% |
34.83% |
31.36% |
27.99% |
24.73% |
21.61% |
18.65% |
7 |
78.81% |
75.93% |
72.85% |
69.58% |
66.14% |
62.53% |
58.79% |
54.93% |
50.98% |
46.97% |
42.92% |
38.88% |
34.87% |
30.92% |
27.09% |
8 |
87.29% |
85.03% |
82.52% |
79.76% |
76.74% |
73.48% |
69.98% |
66.25% |
62.31% |
58.19% |
53.92% |
49.52% |
45.04% |
40.52% |
36.00% |
9 |
92.73% |
91.09% |
89.21% |
87.06% |
84.63% |
81.90% |
78.87% |
75.53% |
71.90% |
67.98% |
63.78% |
59.34% |
54.69% |
49.86% |
44.92% |
10 |
96.01% |
94.92% |
93.60% |
92.03% |
90.19% |
88.05% |
85.59% |
82.79% |
79.63% |
76.12% |
72.24% |
68.01% |
63.45% |
58.58% |
53.46% |
11 |
97.90% |
97.21% |
96.34% |
95.26% |
93.95% |
92.36% |
90.46% |
88.23% |
85.63% |
82.63% |
79.22% |
75.38% |
71.12% |
66.43% |
61.35% |
12 |
98.94% |
98.53% |
97.98% |
97.28% |
96.38% |
95.26% |
93.87% |
92.16% |
90.11% |
87.66% |
84.79% |
81.45% |
77.62% |
73.28% |
68.45% |
13 |
99.49% |
99.25% |
98.93% |
98.49% |
97.91% |
97.15% |
96.16% |
94.92% |
93.36% |
91.44% |
89.10% |
86.30% |
82.98% |
79.11% |
74.65% |
14 |
99.76% |
99.63% |
99.45% |
99.19% |
98.83% |
98.33% |
97.67% |
96.79% |
95.65% |
94.20% |
92.36% |
90.08% |
87.29% |
83.94% |
79.96% |
15 |
99.89% |
99.83% |
99.73% |
99.58% |
99.36% |
99.05% |
98.62% |
98.02% |
97.22% |
96.15% |
94.75% |
92.96% |
90.69% |
87.86% |
84.40% |
16 |
99.95% |
99.92% |
99.87% |
99.79% |
99.66% |
99.48% |
99.21% |
98.81% |
98.26% |
97.50% |
96.47% |
95.10% |
93.30% |
90.98% |
88.04% |
17 |
99.98% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.90% |
99.83% |
99.72% |
99.56% |
99.31% |
98.94% |
98.42% |
97.68% |
96.65% |
95.26% |
93.40% |
90.98% |
18 |
99.99% |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.95% |
99.92% |
99.86% |
99.76% |
99.61% |
99.37% |
99.02% |
98.50% |
97.76% |
96.71% |
95.26% |
93.30% |
19 |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.93% |
99.87% |
99.78% |
99.64% |
99.41% |
99.06% |
98.53% |
97.76% |
96.65% |
95.10% |
20 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.88% |
99.80% |
99.65% |
99.42% |
99.06% |
98.50% |
97.68% |
96.47% |
21 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.89% |
99.80% |
99.65% |
99.41% |
99.02% |
98.42% |
97.50% |
22 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.89% |
99.80% |
99.64% |
99.37% |
98.94% |
98.26% |
23 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.88% |
99.78% |
99.61% |
99.31% |
98.81% |
24 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.87% |
99.76% |
99.56% |
99.21% |
25 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.97% |
99.93% |
99.86% |
99.72% |
99.48% |
26 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.92% |
99.83% |
99.66% |
27 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.95% |
99.90% |
99.79% |
28 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.87% |
29 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.92% |