特定カード 3ドロー確率表(1)

60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが3枚以上引けるのか?

BACK   HOME

・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば4枚入れた「解呪」は最初の7枚の手札に0.90%の確率で3枚
 以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
・この表を見ると25%の確率で3枚以上ドローするには、4枚入れて21ターン目以降ということになる。
 (ただし後攻の場合には、−1する。)
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数

              15枚     14枚     13枚     12枚     11枚     10枚      9枚      8枚      7枚      6枚      5枚      4枚      3枚  
1.33% 1.06% 0.84% 0.64% 0.48% 0.35% 0.25% 0.16% 0.10% 0.06% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
4.48% 3.64% 2.90% 2.27% 1.73% 1.27% 0.90% 0.61% 0.39% 0.22% 0.11% 0.05% 0.01%
9.43% 7.78% 6.30% 4.99% 3.86% 2.89% 2.08% 1.43% 0.92% 0.54% 0.28% 0.11% 0.03%
15.88% 13.30% 10.93% 8.79% 6.89% 5.24% 3.83% 2.66% 1.74% 1.03% 0.54% 0.22% 0.06%
23.40% 19.89% 16.59% 13.54% 10.77% 8.30% 6.16% 4.35% 2.87% 1.74% 0.92% 0.39% 0.10%
31.55% 27.20% 23.02% 19.07% 15.38% 12.03% 9.05% 6.48% 4.35% 2.66% 1.43% 0.61% 0.16%
39.90% 34.89% 29.95% 25.15% 20.59% 16.33% 12.46% 9.05% 6.16% 3.83% 2.08% 0.90% 0.25%
10 48.12% 42.64% 37.10% 31.60% 26.23% 21.10% 16.33% 12.03% 8.30% 5.24% 2.89% 1.27% 0.35%
11 55.92% 50.20% 44.26% 38.20% 32.15% 26.23% 20.59% 15.38% 10.77% 6.89% 3.86% 1.73% 0.48%
12 63.13% 57.36% 51.22% 44.80% 38.20% 31.60% 25.15% 19.07% 13.54% 8.79% 4.99% 2.27% 0.64%
13 69.61% 63.99% 57.84% 51.22% 44.26% 37.10% 29.95% 23.02% 16.59% 10.93% 6.30% 2.90% 0.84%
14 75.32% 69.99% 63.99% 57.36% 50.20% 42.64% 34.89% 27.20% 19.89% 13.30% 7.78% 3.64% 1.06%
15 80.24% 75.32% 69.61% 63.13% 55.92% 48.12% 39.90% 31.55% 23.40% 15.88% 9.43% 4.48% 1.33%
16 84.40% 79.96% 74.65% 68.45% 61.35% 53.46% 44.92% 36.00% 27.09% 18.65% 11.25% 5.43% 1.64%
17 87.86% 83.94% 79.11% 73.28% 66.43% 58.58% 49.86% 40.52% 30.92% 21.61% 13.23% 6.48% 1.99%
18 90.69% 87.29% 82.98% 77.62% 71.12% 63.45% 54.69% 45.04% 34.87% 24.73% 15.37% 7.66% 2.38%
19 92.96% 90.08% 86.30% 81.45% 75.38% 68.01% 59.34% 49.52% 38.88% 27.99% 17.67% 8.94% 2.83%
20 94.75% 92.36% 89.10% 84.79% 79.22% 72.24% 63.78% 53.92% 42.92% 31.36% 20.11% 10.34% 3.33%
21 96.15% 94.20% 91.44% 87.66% 82.63% 76.12% 67.98% 58.19% 46.97% 34.83% 22.69% 11.86% 3.89%
22 97.22% 95.65% 93.36% 90.11% 85.63% 79.63% 71.90% 62.31% 50.98% 38.37% 25.39% 13.50% 4.50%
23 98.02% 96.79% 94.92% 92.16% 88.23% 82.79% 75.53% 66.25% 54.93% 41.95% 28.21% 15.25% 5.18%
24 98.62% 97.67% 96.16% 93.87% 90.46% 85.59% 78.87% 69.98% 58.79% 45.56% 31.13% 17.12% 5.91%
25 99.05% 98.33% 97.15% 95.26% 92.36% 88.05% 81.90% 73.48% 62.53% 49.17% 34.14% 19.10% 6.72%
26 99.36% 98.83% 97.91% 96.38% 93.95% 90.19% 84.63% 76.74% 66.14% 52.76% 37.22% 21.19% 7.60%
27 99.58% 99.19% 98.49% 97.28% 95.26% 92.03% 87.06% 79.76% 69.58% 56.30% 40.36% 23.39% 8.55%
28 99.73% 99.45% 98.93% 97.98% 96.34% 93.60% 89.21% 82.52% 72.85% 59.78% 43.55% 25.70% 9.57%
29 99.83% 99.63% 99.25% 98.53% 97.21% 94.92% 91.09% 85.03% 75.93% 63.17% 46.77% 28.10% 10.68%

Copyright © 1999 つり平

BACK   HOME