特定カード 3ドロー確率表(1)
60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが3枚以上引けるのか?
・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば4枚入れた「解呪」は最初の7枚の手札に0.90%の確率で3枚
以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
・この表を見ると25%の確率で3枚以上ドローするには、4枚入れて21ターン目以降ということになる。
(ただし後攻の場合には、−1する。)
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数
            |
  15枚   |
  14枚   |
  13枚   |
  12枚   |
  11枚   |
  10枚   |
   9枚   |
   8枚   |
   7枚   |
   6枚   |
   5枚   |
   4枚   |
   3枚   |
3 |
1.33% |
1.06% |
0.84% |
0.64% |
0.48% |
0.35% |
0.25% |
0.16% |
0.10% |
0.06% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
4 |
4.48% |
3.64% |
2.90% |
2.27% |
1.73% |
1.27% |
0.90% |
0.61% |
0.39% |
0.22% |
0.11% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
5 |
9.43% |
7.78% |
6.30% |
4.99% |
3.86% |
2.89% |
2.08% |
1.43% |
0.92% |
0.54% |
0.28% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
6 |
15.88% |
13.30% |
10.93% |
8.79% |
6.89% |
5.24% |
3.83% |
2.66% |
1.74% |
1.03% |
0.54% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
7 |
23.40% |
19.89% |
16.59% |
13.54% |
10.77% |
8.30% |
6.16% |
4.35% |
2.87% |
1.74% |
0.92% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
8 |
31.55% |
27.20% |
23.02% |
19.07% |
15.38% |
12.03% |
9.05% |
6.48% |
4.35% |
2.66% |
1.43% |
0.61% |
0.16% |
9 |
39.90% |
34.89% |
29.95% |
25.15% |
20.59% |
16.33% |
12.46% |
9.05% |
6.16% |
3.83% |
2.08% |
0.90% |
0.25% |
10 |
48.12% |
42.64% |
37.10% |
31.60% |
26.23% |
21.10% |
16.33% |
12.03% |
8.30% |
5.24% |
2.89% |
1.27% |
0.35% |
11 |
55.92% |
50.20% |
44.26% |
38.20% |
32.15% |
26.23% |
20.59% |
15.38% |
10.77% |
6.89% |
3.86% |
1.73% |
0.48% |
12 |
63.13% |
57.36% |
51.22% |
44.80% |
38.20% |
31.60% |
25.15% |
19.07% |
13.54% |
8.79% |
4.99% |
2.27% |
0.64% |
13 |
69.61% |
63.99% |
57.84% |
51.22% |
44.26% |
37.10% |
29.95% |
23.02% |
16.59% |
10.93% |
6.30% |
2.90% |
0.84% |
14 |
75.32% |
69.99% |
63.99% |
57.36% |
50.20% |
42.64% |
34.89% |
27.20% |
19.89% |
13.30% |
7.78% |
3.64% |
1.06% |
15 |
80.24% |
75.32% |
69.61% |
63.13% |
55.92% |
48.12% |
39.90% |
31.55% |
23.40% |
15.88% |
9.43% |
4.48% |
1.33% |
16 |
84.40% |
79.96% |
74.65% |
68.45% |
61.35% |
53.46% |
44.92% |
36.00% |
27.09% |
18.65% |
11.25% |
5.43% |
1.64% |
17 |
87.86% |
83.94% |
79.11% |
73.28% |
66.43% |
58.58% |
49.86% |
40.52% |
30.92% |
21.61% |
13.23% |
6.48% |
1.99% |
18 |
90.69% |
87.29% |
82.98% |
77.62% |
71.12% |
63.45% |
54.69% |
45.04% |
34.87% |
24.73% |
15.37% |
7.66% |
2.38% |
19 |
92.96% |
90.08% |
86.30% |
81.45% |
75.38% |
68.01% |
59.34% |
49.52% |
38.88% |
27.99% |
17.67% |
8.94% |
2.83% |
20 |
94.75% |
92.36% |
89.10% |
84.79% |
79.22% |
72.24% |
63.78% |
53.92% |
42.92% |
31.36% |
20.11% |
10.34% |
3.33% |
21 |
96.15% |
94.20% |
91.44% |
87.66% |
82.63% |
76.12% |
67.98% |
58.19% |
46.97% |
34.83% |
22.69% |
11.86% |
3.89% |
22 |
97.22% |
95.65% |
93.36% |
90.11% |
85.63% |
79.63% |
71.90% |
62.31% |
50.98% |
38.37% |
25.39% |
13.50% |
4.50% |
23 |
98.02% |
96.79% |
94.92% |
92.16% |
88.23% |
82.79% |
75.53% |
66.25% |
54.93% |
41.95% |
28.21% |
15.25% |
5.18% |
24 |
98.62% |
97.67% |
96.16% |
93.87% |
90.46% |
85.59% |
78.87% |
69.98% |
58.79% |
45.56% |
31.13% |
17.12% |
5.91% |
25 |
99.05% |
98.33% |
97.15% |
95.26% |
92.36% |
88.05% |
81.90% |
73.48% |
62.53% |
49.17% |
34.14% |
19.10% |
6.72% |
26 |
99.36% |
98.83% |
97.91% |
96.38% |
93.95% |
90.19% |
84.63% |
76.74% |
66.14% |
52.76% |
37.22% |
21.19% |
7.60% |
27 |
99.58% |
99.19% |
98.49% |
97.28% |
95.26% |
92.03% |
87.06% |
79.76% |
69.58% |
56.30% |
40.36% |
23.39% |
8.55% |
28 |
99.73% |
99.45% |
98.93% |
97.98% |
96.34% |
93.60% |
89.21% |
82.52% |
72.85% |
59.78% |
43.55% |
25.70% |
9.57% |
29 |
99.83% |
99.63% |
99.25% |
98.53% |
97.21% |
94.92% |
91.09% |
85.03% |
75.93% |
63.17% |
46.77% |
28.10% |
10.68% |