特定カード 4ドロー確率表(2)

60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが4枚以上引けるのか?

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・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば20枚入れた「森」は最初の7枚の手札に15.95%の確率で4枚
 以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数

              30枚     29枚     28枚     27枚     26枚     25枚     24枚     23枚     22枚     21枚     20枚     19枚     18枚     17枚     16枚  
5.62% 4.87% 4.20% 3.60% 3.07% 2.59% 2.18% 1.82% 1.50% 1.23% 0.99% 0.79% 0.63% 0.49% 0.37%
17.66% 15.66% 13.80% 12.08% 10.51% 9.08% 7.78% 6.62% 5.57% 4.65% 3.83% 3.12% 2.51% 1.99% 1.55%
33.54% 30.36% 27.32% 24.42% 21.68% 19.10% 16.70% 14.47% 12.42% 10.55% 8.86% 7.36% 6.02% 4.85% 3.84%
50.00% 46.16% 42.35% 38.59% 34.92% 31.35% 27.92% 24.65% 21.55% 18.64% 15.95% 13.47% 11.22% 9.19% 7.41%
64.68% 60.76% 56.73% 52.62% 48.46% 44.30% 40.15% 36.08% 32.10% 28.26% 24.60% 21.14% 17.91% 14.93% 12.23%
76.42% 72.90% 69.13% 65.15% 60.97% 56.64% 52.20% 47.68% 43.14% 38.62% 34.18% 29.87% 25.74% 21.82% 18.18%
10 85.05% 82.17% 78.97% 75.46% 71.64% 67.54% 63.18% 58.60% 53.85% 48.98% 44.05% 39.12% 34.25% 29.52% 24.99%
11 90.97% 88.80% 86.29% 83.41% 80.17% 76.56% 72.59% 68.28% 63.65% 58.75% 53.64% 48.36% 43.01% 37.66% 32.39%
12 94.79% 93.26% 91.42% 89.22% 86.64% 83.65% 80.25% 76.42% 72.17% 67.52% 62.51% 57.19% 51.61% 45.88% 40.08%
13 97.13% 96.11% 94.84% 93.25% 91.31% 88.97% 86.21% 82.98% 79.27% 75.08% 70.40% 65.27% 59.74% 53.87% 47.76%
14 98.48% 97.85% 97.01% 95.92% 94.54% 92.80% 90.66% 88.06% 84.97% 81.34% 77.17% 72.43% 67.16% 61.39% 55.20%
15 99.23% 98.86% 98.34% 97.63% 96.68% 95.44% 93.86% 91.86% 89.38% 86.37% 82.78% 78.57% 73.72% 68.25% 62.20%
16 99.63% 99.42% 99.11% 98.67% 98.05% 97.21% 96.08% 94.60% 92.69% 90.28% 87.30% 83.69% 79.38% 74.35% 68.61%
17 99.83% 99.72% 99.54% 99.28% 98.89% 98.34% 97.57% 96.51% 95.10% 93.24% 90.85% 87.84% 84.12% 79.64% 74.35%
18 99.92% 99.87% 99.77% 99.62% 99.39% 99.05% 98.54% 97.81% 96.80% 95.41% 93.55% 91.12% 88.01% 84.12% 79.38%
19 99.97% 99.94% 99.89% 99.81% 99.68% 99.47% 99.15% 98.67% 97.96% 96.96% 95.55% 93.65% 91.12% 87.84% 83.69%
20 99.99% 99.97% 99.95% 99.91% 99.84% 99.72% 99.52% 99.21% 98.74% 98.03% 97.01% 95.55% 93.55% 90.85% 87.30%
21 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.96% 99.92% 99.85% 99.74% 99.55% 99.24% 98.76% 98.03% 96.96% 95.41% 93.24% 90.28%
22 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.96% 99.93% 99.86% 99.75% 99.56% 99.24% 98.74% 97.96% 96.80% 95.10% 92.69%
23 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.96% 99.93% 99.86% 99.75% 99.55% 99.21% 98.67% 97.81% 96.51% 94.60%
24 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.97% 99.93% 99.86% 99.74% 99.52% 99.15% 98.54% 97.57% 96.08%
25 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.96% 99.93% 99.85% 99.72% 99.47% 99.05% 98.34% 97.21%
26 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.96% 99.92% 99.84% 99.68% 99.39% 98.89% 98.05%
27 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.96% 99.91% 99.81% 99.62% 99.28% 98.67%
28 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.98% 99.95% 99.89% 99.77% 99.54% 99.11%
29 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.97% 99.94% 99.87% 99.72% 99.42%
30 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 99.97% 99.92% 99.83% 99.63%

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