特定カード 4ドロー確率表(2)
60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが4枚以上引けるのか?
・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば20枚入れた「森」は最初の7枚の手札に15.95%の確率で4枚
以上入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数
            |
  30枚   |
  29枚   |
  28枚   |
  27枚   |
  26枚   |
  25枚   |
  24枚   |
  23枚   |
  22枚   |
  21枚   |
  20枚   |
  19枚   |
  18枚   |
  17枚   |
  16枚   |
4 |
5.62% |
4.87% |
4.20% |
3.60% |
3.07% |
2.59% |
2.18% |
1.82% |
1.50% |
1.23% |
0.99% |
0.79% |
0.63% |
0.49% |
0.37% |
5 |
17.66% |
15.66% |
13.80% |
12.08% |
10.51% |
9.08% |
7.78% |
6.62% |
5.57% |
4.65% |
3.83% |
3.12% |
2.51% |
1.99% |
1.55% |
6 |
33.54% |
30.36% |
27.32% |
24.42% |
21.68% |
19.10% |
16.70% |
14.47% |
12.42% |
10.55% |
8.86% |
7.36% |
6.02% |
4.85% |
3.84% |
7 |
50.00% |
46.16% |
42.35% |
38.59% |
34.92% |
31.35% |
27.92% |
24.65% |
21.55% |
18.64% |
15.95% |
13.47% |
11.22% |
9.19% |
7.41% |
8 |
64.68% |
60.76% |
56.73% |
52.62% |
48.46% |
44.30% |
40.15% |
36.08% |
32.10% |
28.26% |
24.60% |
21.14% |
17.91% |
14.93% |
12.23% |
9 |
76.42% |
72.90% |
69.13% |
65.15% |
60.97% |
56.64% |
52.20% |
47.68% |
43.14% |
38.62% |
34.18% |
29.87% |
25.74% |
21.82% |
18.18% |
10 |
85.05% |
82.17% |
78.97% |
75.46% |
71.64% |
67.54% |
63.18% |
58.60% |
53.85% |
48.98% |
44.05% |
39.12% |
34.25% |
29.52% |
24.99% |
11 |
90.97% |
88.80% |
86.29% |
83.41% |
80.17% |
76.56% |
72.59% |
68.28% |
63.65% |
58.75% |
53.64% |
48.36% |
43.01% |
37.66% |
32.39% |
12 |
94.79% |
93.26% |
91.42% |
89.22% |
86.64% |
83.65% |
80.25% |
76.42% |
72.17% |
67.52% |
62.51% |
57.19% |
51.61% |
45.88% |
40.08% |
13 |
97.13% |
96.11% |
94.84% |
93.25% |
91.31% |
88.97% |
86.21% |
82.98% |
79.27% |
75.08% |
70.40% |
65.27% |
59.74% |
53.87% |
47.76% |
14 |
98.48% |
97.85% |
97.01% |
95.92% |
94.54% |
92.80% |
90.66% |
88.06% |
84.97% |
81.34% |
77.17% |
72.43% |
67.16% |
61.39% |
55.20% |
15 |
99.23% |
98.86% |
98.34% |
97.63% |
96.68% |
95.44% |
93.86% |
91.86% |
89.38% |
86.37% |
82.78% |
78.57% |
73.72% |
68.25% |
62.20% |
16 |
99.63% |
99.42% |
99.11% |
98.67% |
98.05% |
97.21% |
96.08% |
94.60% |
92.69% |
90.28% |
87.30% |
83.69% |
79.38% |
74.35% |
68.61% |
17 |
99.83% |
99.72% |
99.54% |
99.28% |
98.89% |
98.34% |
97.57% |
96.51% |
95.10% |
93.24% |
90.85% |
87.84% |
84.12% |
79.64% |
74.35% |
18 |
99.92% |
99.87% |
99.77% |
99.62% |
99.39% |
99.05% |
98.54% |
97.81% |
96.80% |
95.41% |
93.55% |
91.12% |
88.01% |
84.12% |
79.38% |
19 |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.89% |
99.81% |
99.68% |
99.47% |
99.15% |
98.67% |
97.96% |
96.96% |
95.55% |
93.65% |
91.12% |
87.84% |
83.69% |
20 |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.95% |
99.91% |
99.84% |
99.72% |
99.52% |
99.21% |
98.74% |
98.03% |
97.01% |
95.55% |
93.55% |
90.85% |
87.30% |
21 |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.92% |
99.85% |
99.74% |
99.55% |
99.24% |
98.76% |
98.03% |
96.96% |
95.41% |
93.24% |
90.28% |
22 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.93% |
99.86% |
99.75% |
99.56% |
99.24% |
98.74% |
97.96% |
96.80% |
95.10% |
92.69% |
23 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.93% |
99.86% |
99.75% |
99.55% |
99.21% |
98.67% |
97.81% |
96.51% |
94.60% |
24 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.97% |
99.93% |
99.86% |
99.74% |
99.52% |
99.15% |
98.54% |
97.57% |
96.08% |
25 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.93% |
99.85% |
99.72% |
99.47% |
99.05% |
98.34% |
97.21% |
26 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.92% |
99.84% |
99.68% |
99.39% |
98.89% |
98.05% |
27 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.96% |
99.91% |
99.81% |
99.62% |
99.28% |
98.67% |
28 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.98% |
99.95% |
99.89% |
99.77% |
99.54% |
99.11% |
29 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.94% |
99.87% |
99.72% |
99.42% |
30 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
99.99% |
99.97% |
99.92% |
99.83% |
99.63% |