特定カード 4ドロー確率表(1)

60枚デッキで何回ドローすれば特定のカードが4枚以上引けるのか?

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・最初の手札は7回ドローしたとみなす(例えば4枚入れた「解呪」は最初の7枚の手札に0.01%の確率で4枚
 入っていると考えられる)。
・オプショナル・マリガンした場合には、その分ドロー回数を引いた行を見る。
縦:ドローした回数        横:デッキに入れた枚数

              15枚     14枚     13枚     12枚     11枚     10枚      9枚      8枚      7枚      6枚      5枚      4枚  
0.28% 0.21% 0.15% 0.10% 0.07% 0.04% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1.18% 0.88% 0.64% 0.45% 0.30% 0.20% 0.12% 0.07% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00%
2.98% 2.26% 1.67% 1.19% 0.82% 0.54% 0.33% 0.19% 0.10% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
5.85% 4.51% 3.38% 2.46% 1.72% 1.15% 0.72% 0.42% 0.22% 0.10% 0.03% 0.01%
9.82% 7.70% 5.88% 4.34% 3.09% 2.09% 1.34% 0.79% 0.42% 0.19% 0.07% 0.01%
14.83% 11.82% 9.17% 6.89% 4.98% 3.43% 2.23% 1.34% 0.72% 0.33% 0.12% 0.03%
10 20.73% 16.80% 13.25% 10.11% 7.43% 5.20% 3.43% 2.09% 1.15% 0.54% 0.20% 0.04%
11 27.30% 22.48% 18.02% 13.98% 10.44% 7.43% 4.98% 3.09% 1.72% 0.82% 0.30% 0.07%
12 34.31% 28.71% 23.37% 18.43% 13.98% 10.11% 6.89% 4.34% 2.46% 1.19% 0.45% 0.10%
13 41.52% 35.27% 29.18% 23.37% 18.02% 13.25% 9.17% 5.88% 3.38% 1.67% 0.64% 0.15%
14 48.69% 41.99% 35.27% 28.71% 22.48% 16.80% 11.82% 7.70% 4.51% 2.26% 0.88% 0.21%
15 55.64% 48.69% 41.52% 34.31% 27.30% 20.73% 14.83% 9.82% 5.85% 2.98% 1.18% 0.28%
16 62.20% 55.20% 47.76% 40.08% 32.39% 24.99% 18.18% 12.23% 7.41% 3.84% 1.55% 0.37%
17 68.25% 61.39% 53.87% 45.88% 37.66% 29.52% 21.82% 14.93% 9.19% 4.85% 1.99% 0.49%
18 73.72% 67.16% 59.74% 51.61% 43.01% 34.25% 25.74% 17.91% 11.22% 6.02% 2.51% 0.63%
19 78.57% 72.43% 65.27% 57.19% 48.36% 39.12% 29.87% 21.14% 13.47% 7.36% 3.12% 0.79%
20 82.78% 77.17% 70.40% 62.51% 53.64% 44.05% 34.18% 24.60% 15.95% 8.86% 3.83% 0.99%
21 86.37% 81.34% 75.08% 67.52% 58.75% 48.98% 38.62% 28.26% 18.64% 10.55% 4.65% 1.23%
22 89.38% 84.97% 79.27% 72.17% 63.65% 53.85% 43.14% 32.10% 21.55% 12.42% 5.57% 1.50%
23 91.86% 88.06% 82.98% 76.42% 68.28% 58.60% 47.68% 36.08% 24.65% 14.47% 6.62% 1.82%
24 93.86% 90.66% 86.21% 80.25% 72.59% 63.18% 52.20% 40.15% 27.92% 16.70% 7.78% 2.18%
25 95.44% 92.80% 88.97% 83.65% 76.56% 67.54% 56.64% 44.30% 31.35% 19.10% 9.08% 2.59%
26 96.68% 94.54% 91.31% 86.64% 80.17% 71.64% 60.97% 48.46% 34.92% 21.68% 10.51% 3.07%
27 97.63% 95.92% 93.25% 89.22% 83.41% 75.46% 65.15% 52.62% 38.59% 24.42% 12.08% 3.60%
28 98.34% 97.01% 94.84% 91.42% 86.29% 78.97% 69.13% 56.73% 42.35% 27.32% 13.80% 4.20%
29 98.86% 97.85% 96.11% 93.26% 88.80% 82.17% 72.90% 60.76% 46.16% 30.36% 15.66% 4.87%
30 99.23% 98.48% 97.13% 94.79% 90.97% 85.05% 76.42% 64.68% 50.00% 33.54% 17.66% 5.62%

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